Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 2.188754 2.310036 2.440914 2.593893 2.769477 2.966869 3.208817
2025-06-01 2.041167 2.193703 2.365348 2.576016 2.832472 3.141690 3.555282
2025-06-08 1.936674 2.106983 2.304221 2.554933 2.874004 3.280997 3.868449
2025-06-15 1.877799 2.064731 2.286790 2.578228 2.965170 3.487511 4.306605
2025-06-22 1.782264 1.970504 2.197115 2.499687 2.910966 3.484698 4.431707
2025-06-29 1.732267 1.927913 2.167265 2.493702 2.950811 3.616548 4.796654
2025-07-06 1.669016 1.865051 2.107281 2.442076 2.919945 3.636171 4.971297
2025-07-13 1.648327 1.853985 2.112248 2.477158 3.015164 3.863234 5.601244
2025-07-20 1.641798 1.859967 2.138920 2.543089 3.162175 4.201189 6.628542
2025-07-27 1.612600 1.834980 2.122511 2.545784 3.210475 4.374970 7.381940
2025-08-03 1.586271 1.812424 2.107897 2.549454 3.259787 4.559318 8.311301
2025-08-10 1.539334 1.760971 2.051461 2.487577 3.194436 4.505614 8.438999
2025-08-17 1.510525 1.733816 2.029000 2.477800 3.220536 4.653618 9.488743
2025-08-24 1.482173 1.706182 2.004520 2.463155 3.236376 4.783455 10.677895
2025-08-31 1.454480 1.678449 1.978649 2.444606 3.243174 4.894902 12.028179
2025-09-07 1.441130 1.669490 1.978673 2.465976 3.323693 5.200328 15.664271
2025-09-14 1.400400 1.622072 1.922087 2.394667 3.225627 5.039726 15.041195
2025-09-21 1.381501 1.604046 1.907149 2.389247 3.251677 5.207157 18.585592
2025-09-28 1.351212 1.569634 1.867496 2.342184 3.194336 5.141758 19.168274
2025-10-05 1.345464 1.568815 1.876410 2.374189 3.293101 5.533804 34.400483
2025-10-12 1.347650 1.578927 1.901516 2.434201 3.455499 6.193338 NaN
2025-10-19 1.334069 1.566543 1.892753 2.436651 3.499044 6.492686 NaN
2025-10-26 1.321345 1.555009 1.884820 2.439986 3.544840 6.825992 NaN